ASEAN could emerge as a major global supplier of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) over the coming decades, with the potential to produce up to 8.5 million barrels per day by 2050, according to the ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report. The findings highlight the region’s growing role in supporting aviation decarbonisation as demand for lower-carbon fuels accelerates across Asia-Pacific.
The report assesses future SAF supply chains and market dynamics across 2030, 2040, and 2050, covering Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also considers regional trade flows with key import markets including Japan, Singapore and the Republic of Korea.
Developed by GHD with financial support from Global Affairs Canada through the Canadian Trade and Investment Facility for Development (CTIF), the study was implemented by Cowater International in association with the Institute of Public Administrators of Canada and Global Affairs Canada. Boeing served as the knowledge partner, with the work supporting the ASEAN Secretariat.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel is produced from renewable or waste-based feedstocks and can be used in existing aircraft and infrastructure without modification. Within Southeast Asia, common feedstock sources include used cooking oil, agricultural residues such as rice and cassava waste, and sustainable forestry by-products.
The outlook suggests that the ASEAN countries assessed have the capacity not only to meet domestic needs but also to become net exporters of SAF. Viet Nam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand stand out for their volume of available feedstock, while Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are expected to have particularly competitive logistics for supplying markets such as Japan, Singapore and the Republic of Korea.
Alongside export opportunities, the report projects strong growth in regional SAF consumption. Demand within ASEAN is forecast to rise from around 15,000 barrels per day in 2030 to more than 700,000 barrels per day by mid-century. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand are expected to account for the largest shares of demand, with additional growth anticipated in Japan and the Republic of Korea.
The report also evaluates several SAF production pathways. While Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) remains the most widely used technology today, its costs are still roughly double those of conventional jet fuel, largely due to feedstock prices. Other pathways, including Gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, Alcohol-to-Jet and Hydrothermal Liquefaction, currently face higher cost premiums, though these are expected to decline as technologies mature and scale.
“The ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook confirms our region’s strong comparative advantage on the supply side, particularly in the availability of sustainable bio-feedstocks. At the same time, rising regional and global demand for sustainable aviation fuel presents a clear market opportunity for ASEAN.”
– Satvinder Singh, Deputy Secretary-General for the ASEAN Economic Community.
To unlock this potential, the report points to the importance of coordinated regional action, including scaling production capacity, accelerating the deployment of cost-effective technologies and strengthening trade and market frameworks across ASEAN.
“Southeast Asia’s commercial aviation industry is growing rapidly to serve the region’s expanding economies and meet demand from passengers and for air cargo. In addition to adding more fuel-efficient airplanes to the fleet, increasing Southeast Asia’s supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will further enable responsible growth. The ASEAN 2050 SAF Outlook shows the region’s strong potential to increase SAF production with the right policies, partnerships and investments.”
– Sharmine Tan, Boeing’s regional sustainability lead for Southeast Asia.
“We are at an exciting juncture with respect to SAF because ASEAN has an abundance of agricultural and forestry waste that could serve as low-cost feedstock, narrowing the premium between HEFA-derived SAF and jet fuel. At the same time, policy intervention, overall targeted interventions, scaling, and innovation can narrow the cost gap for alternative SAF pathways over the medium to long term.”
Sachin Narang, GHD’s Executive Advisor – Energy and Infrastructure.
The ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook builds on earlier Canadian-ASEAN collaboration, following a joint techno-economic assessment on converting agricultural waste into SAF released in April 2025, and reinforces Southeast Asia’s potential position as a future hub for sustainable aviation fuel production and trade.
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